Happy New Year! Though this week’s The Razor’s Edge touches on what may not be the happiest start for people investing in software names or tech more generally. So what’s going on? We throw together a bit of recent and longer-term history, a bit of market sentiment analysis, and some opinions on what might still work, to see why a shift has been coming for a while and why there might be more to come.
- 2:00 minute mark – Did the first week mark a change or a continuation?
- 10:00 – The momentum juggling game
- 13:30 – What’s triggering the shift?
- 20:00 – End of a software cycle and finding an investor base
- 28:00 – Tracking companies’ evolutions
- 36:30 – Consensus buys vs. taking a leap of faith
- 48:00 – Multiple gravity has changed towards the slow and steady
- 57:00 – The 00s shipping bubble as a parallel
- 59:30 – Navigating the factors and the importance of getting the cycle right
- 1:11:30 – Sectors to watch
- 1:17:00 – Importance of perspective
- 1:21:00 – The nature of competition when all eyes are on a trend
- 1:35:00 – Not quite validation for permabears either